AEON

We rate AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.1/100 at a current price of $1.21. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (81th percentile) and momentum (60th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (16th percentile) and stability (28th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (23/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

AEON Biopharma, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.1/100 places it at rank #2782 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $22M in market capitalization, AEON Biopharma, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Momentum indicators (60th percentile) are neutral regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.

Margin data is not available for AEON Biopharma, Inc., which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $1.21, AEON Biopharma, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 81/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

Valuation multiples are not available for this company, which limits our ability to assess relative pricing. We rely more heavily on factor-based valuation signals in such cases.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to AEON Biopharma, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (28th percentile) and weak quality scores (16th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (28th percentile); weak quality scores (16th percentile); low beta of 0.54 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 28th percentile and quality factor at the 16th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our medium uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-46.3%), weak asset returns (ROA -94.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — AEON Biopharma, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, AEON Biopharma, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 45.1/100 (rank #2782 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (23/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on AEON Biopharma, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.