ADT

We rate ADT Inc. (ADT) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.1/100 at a current price of $7.89. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (91th percentile) and value (79th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (34/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ADT Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.1/100 places it at rank #1021 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $7.2B in market capitalization, ADT Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 8% and favorable momentum (68th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 81% (+21.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 26% (+22.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 11.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 14%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $7.89, ADT Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 79/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.2x (a 53% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 11.1x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.8x, P/S of 1.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to ADT Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (216% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.66 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (216% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.66 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 91th percentile and quality factor at the 50th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 81% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (91th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.54% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ADT Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (216% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — ADT Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, ADT Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.1/100 (rank #1021 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (34/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 67/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on ADT Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.