ADMA

We rate ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. (ADMA) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.1/100 at a current price of $15.55. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (75th percentile) and stability (62th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (24th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (65/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.1/100 places it at rank #2472 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 25%, though momentum at the 42th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 54% (+11.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 34% (+32.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 27.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 51%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $15.55, ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 28.7x (a 29% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 22.1x (at a premium), P/B of 8.9x, P/S of 7.8x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.11, conservative leverage (17% D/E), and a stability factor in the 62th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 62th percentile with quality at the 75th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 54% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (17% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (62th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 30.9%, disciplined leverage (17% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 27.1%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 23.5% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.1/100 (rank #2472 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (65/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.