ACEL

We rate Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.2/100 at a current price of $10.87. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (89th percentile) and momentum (68th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (32th percentile) and value (65th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (42/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Accel Entertainment, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.2/100 places it at rank #410 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $933M in market capitalization, Accel Entertainment, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 7% and favorable momentum (68th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+40.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (+4.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 3%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $10.87, Accel Entertainment, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 65/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 23.7x (roughly in line with the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 15.4x (at a premium), P/B of 3.5x, P/S of 0.7x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Accel Entertainment, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (223% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.60 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (223% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.60 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; the combination of leverage (223% D/E) and thin margins (3.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 89th percentile and quality factor at the 67th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (89th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (223% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Accel Entertainment, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Accel Entertainment, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 63.2/100 (rank #410 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (42/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 64/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Accel Entertainment, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.