AAL

We rate American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) as Avoid with a composite score of 38.5/100 at a current price of $13.16. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (49th percentile) and quality (35th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (26th percentile) and momentum (28th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (22/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

American Airlines Group Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 38.5/100 places it at rank #3735 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $7.4B in market capitalization, American Airlines Group Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -4% combined with momentum at the 28th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 27% (-27.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (-15.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -0.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -1%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $13.16, American Airlines Group Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 33/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 76.1x (a 350% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 11.0x (at a premium), P/S of 0.2x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to American Airlines Group Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.82), current negative profitability (net margin -0.4%), below-average price stability (26th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.82); current negative profitability (net margin -0.4%); below-average price stability (26th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 76.1x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 26th percentile and quality factor at the 35th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate American Airlines Group Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-4.5%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — American Airlines Group Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, American Airlines Group Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 38.5/100 (rank #3735 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (22/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 34/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on American Airlines Group Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.