WGO

We rate WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC (WGO) as a Hold with a composite score of 56.4/100 at a current price of $43.64. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (72th percentile) and momentum (61th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (27th percentile) and quality (50th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (33/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 56.4/100 places it at rank #1102 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.0B in market capitalization, WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (61th percentile), revenue contraction of -11% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 13% (-29.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (+1.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 7%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $43.64, WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 72/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 46.9x (a 111% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 22.8x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 0.5x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 46.9x) that leaves limited margin for error. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 46.9x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 60th percentile and quality factor at the 50th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 3.79% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 2.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 44%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 3.79% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.4/100 (rank #1102 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (33/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 54/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.