SWBI

We rate SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. (SWBI) as a Hold with a composite score of 55.3/100 at a current price of $11.72. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (77th percentile) and momentum (61th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (27th percentile) and value (47th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (22/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 55.3/100 places it at rank #1226 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $425M in market capitalization, SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (61th percentile), revenue contraction of -38% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 26% (-16.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 1% (-0.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -0.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -2%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $11.72, SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 47/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 1908.5x (a 8477% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 13.8x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 1.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: current negative profitability (net margin -0.4%) and low beta of 0.62 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -0.4%); low beta of 0.62 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; elevated valuation multiple (P/E 1908.5x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (52% D/E) and thin margins (-0.4% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 77th percentile and quality factor at the 49th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (77th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 5.43% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (0.1%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA 0.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.3/100 (rank #1226 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (22/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 52/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.