IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Research & Insights · Long-form
Long-form research notes, paper walkthroughs, and market commentary. Posted as the editor finishes them. The shorter, daily version is The Capital Memo.
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The Feed
The Playbook, all together
Eight CEOs ran this exact playbook for forty years. The research explains why it works.
A closer look at the buyback
Stock-based compensation is a cash expense paid with a lag. Until you adjust for it, the headline buyback yield is an accounting illusion.
A closer look at return on capital
Return on invested capital is the single most important number in corporate finance. Getting it right takes more than a glance at the financial statements.
Why spinoffs still outperform
Three finance professors documented it in 1993. It has been replicated for thirty years. And it remains one of the cleanest sources of excess return in public markets, because capturing it...
The best capital allocation decisions look wrong at the time
In October 2008, Texas Instruments announced it was exiting the fastest-growing chip market in the world. A case study in why the academic research said it was the right move.
Market Close Briefing: Friday, April 17, 2026
S&P 500 closes higher, but infrastructure stocks lead the way on "Grid 2.0" optimism. Barclays' $3210 S&P target fuels the fire. Iran tensions linger, impacting energy. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. ServiceNow's AI transformation and the Buffett Indicator's waning influence are also in focus.
The decisions that look wrong when you make them
Three moves that separate the companies that compound capital from the ones that squander it. A Friday deep memo.
What The Capital Memo is
A weekday newsletter that reads peer-reviewed academic research on how companies actually deploy capital — and connects it to the decisions being made this week.
Market Close Briefing: Warsh, Wires, and Washington
Markets eye grid upgrades as Barclays forecasts $321 S&P. Warsh's Fed bid raises conflict questions. Jobless claims stable, but Iran war looms. $SOFI decline sparks debate. $NOW embraces AI. A day of power plays and potential pitfalls.
The clock on $1.3 trillion
Private equity is sitting on more undeployed buyout capital than ever before. The deployment window is closing, and the academic research says what comes next.
The Morning Briefing: Gridlock Breaker?
Barclays forecasts a $321 S&P 500 based on grid upgrades. Buffett's stable stocks offer recession protection. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. Gold gains on US-Iran peace deal hopes. Paychex's AI transformation is under scrutiny.
The Red Queen Problem
Why the most important number in a company's earnings report is the one they don't disclose.
Market Close Briefing: Tuesday, April 14, 2026
Markets mixed amid U.S.-Iran tensions and AI capex concerns. $GOOGL slides on AI spending worries. Cybersecurity fund highlighted as AI security becomes paramount. $SOFI faces questions after YTD decline. United-American merger raises antitrust concerns. $UPST remains volatile.
JPMorgan's Capital Allocation Report Card
Five categories. One grade. And one hierarchy that explains why JPMorgan has outperformed the S&P 500 by 40+ percentage points over five years.
The Morning Briefing: AI Capex Concerns Clash with Cybersecurity Optimism
Geopolitical tensions and AI capex concerns weigh on markets, but cybersecurity and autonomous vehicle plays offer targeted opportunities. $WCBR benefits from agentic AI vulnerabilities. $LCID surges on new CEO and Uber deal. $GOOGL slides on AI spending. $SOFI and $PAYX in focus.
The $30 Billion Question: Are Bank Buybacks Worth It?
Goldman beat this morning. JPMorgan tomorrow. They'll announce tens of billions in capital returns. The research on whether that money is well spent is more contested than either side admits.
Friday's Fade: AI Capex Fears & SoFi's Siren Song
Markets ended the week down amid U.S.-Iran tensions and AI capex concerns, particularly for $GOOGL. $SOFI's YTD decline raises questions about its future. Cybersecurity, as highlighted by $WCBR, is becoming increasingly vital in the AI era. $NOW's AI integration shows promise. Cramer's influence persists.
What 30 Years of M&A Research Says About the Deals Being Done Right Now
Academic research has studied capital deployment waves like this one extensively. The findings are consistent, well-documented, and mostly ignored.
The Morning Briefing: AI Anxiety and Airline Adjustments
AI cybersecurity opportunities, SoFi's YTD decline, and JetBlue's strategic shift are key market drivers. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund ($WCBR) may benefit from increased AI threats. SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) faces profitability challenges. JetBlue ($JBLU) cancels Spirit deal, raising fees amid industry pressures. Alphabet ($GOOGL) slides on AI spending concerns.
Capital One's $5.2B bet
Plus: Why everyone is ignoring Friday’s hot CPI, Intel's debt-fueled buyback, and the $64 fuel tax on American households.
Short Interest Stock Analysis Guide: Data, Ratios & Strategies
Master short interest stock analysis with expert strategies for evaluating days-to-cover ratios, short float percentages, and identifying squeeze opportunities versus fundamentally weak companies.
Best Growth Stocks 2026: Investment Factor Rankings
These best growth stocks rank highest for capex efficiency, R&D intensity, and forward revenue acceleration in BCR's quantitative analysis.
The Morning Briefing: Ceasefire Relief, AI Anxiety
Markets are relieved by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but AI capex concerns linger, weighing on tech. Pirro's Powell probe is likely political theater. Cybersecurity ETFs are touted as AI winners. Alphabet struggles with AI spending. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. ServiceNow's AI integration shows promise.
Market Close Briefing: Wednesday, April 8, 2026
Markets were choppy today, with AI capex concerns weighing on tech stocks, especially Alphabet. Cybersecurity firms are poised to benefit from the rise of agentic AI. SoFi's struggles highlight the challenges facing fintechs in a rising rate environment. Upstart and ServiceNow are also in focus.
The Morning Briefing: Drones, AI, and the WisdomTree Windfall
Geopolitical tensions and AI spending concerns weigh on markets. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund ($WCBR) poised to benefit from increased AI security needs. Alphabet ($GOOGL) slides on AI capex worries. ServiceNow ($NOW) sees growth amid AI transformation. NIO ($NIO) falls despite first profit, highlighting EV market fragility.
Featured
A walk through the factor-literature evidence on what's working this month and what isn't.
Quantitative analysis of current market conditions, factor rotations, and where the data points for the rest of 2026.
Everything you need to know about factor investing, from academic foundations to practical portfolio construction.
All Research
Category
Market Outlook
ETFs vs. Individual Stocks in 2026: A Data-Driven Comparison
When does stock picking beat index funds? Factor-level analysis of active vs. passive returns.
Factor Research
Factor Investing in 2026: Which Factors Are Winning and Why
Performance comparison of Quality, Value, Momentum, Stability, Growth, and Size factors, and what it means for your portfolio.
Factor Research
Momentum vs Value in 2026: Which Strategy Wins?
Head-to-head comparison using live data from 4,400+ stocks. Why combining both factors outperforms either alone.
Factor Research
Momentum Investing Strategy: Why It Works and When It Crashes
The momentum factor explained. Behavioral drivers, crash risk, and how to implement it systematically.
Factor Research
Best Quality Stocks to Buy in 2026: Profitability Predicts Returns
Why high-profitability companies consistently outperform. A tour of the Novy-Marx and Ball et al. evidence.
Factor Research
The Investment Factor: Why Spending Less Earns More
Companies that invest conservatively outperform empire-builders. The Fama-French CMA factor explained.
Factor Research
Low-Volatility Stocks: How Boring Beats the Market
The low-volatility anomaly explained. Why less risk has historically meant more return, per Ang et al. and Frazzini-Pedersen.
Factor Research
Short Interest Explained: Using Short Data to Pick Stocks
How informed short sellers reveal conviction, and how low short interest signals bullish positioning.
Factor Research
Short Interest: What High Short Interest Really Means
Decoding short interest data. When high short interest is a warning sign and when it is a contrarian signal.
Market Outlook
Only 3 Stocks Earn a Strong Buy Right Now: Here's Why the Model Is So Selective
Out of 4,453 stocks, only 3 earn Strong Buy. 124 earn Buy. What the rating distribution tells us about the current market.
Market Outlook
The Market Is Rallying: Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell? A Data-Driven Framework
What 4,453 stocks tell us about this rally. Only 3 earn Strong Buy. A quantitative framework for decision-making.
Stock Picks
Tariff-Proof Stocks: 10 Companies That Thrive Regardless of Trade Policy
Domestic revenue. Pricing power. Stability. Our quantitative screen identifies stocks insulated from tariff risk.
Stock Picks
Best Insurance Stocks for 2026: Why Insurers Dominate Our Rankings
Low P/Es, high quality, low beta. Why insurers show up so often in multi-factor composites. A literature walkthrough.
Stock Picks
Shipping Stocks Surge: Why Tanker Companies Are the Market's Best-Kept Secret
Value 96. Momentum 74. Three tanker companies rank in the BCR top 10. The data screams buy.
Stock Picks
10 Most Undervalued Stocks Heading Into Q1 2026
Multi-factor quantitative analysis reveals the most undervalued stocks with strong quality and stability scores.
Stock Picks
Best Growth Stocks to Buy in 2026
How momentum and the investment factor, read together, separate real growth trajectories from story stocks.
Stock Picks
Best Dividend Stocks for 2026: Quality Over Yield
Why high yield alone is a trap. Quality + Stability factor screening isolates sustainable dividend payers.
Stock Picks
Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Passive Income
Stocks with rising dividends and strong quality scores, built for long-term compounding income.
Stock Picks
Best Small-Cap Stocks for 2026
Small caps at a historic discount to large caps, and why combining size with quality screens has historically beaten size alone.
Guides
Stock Screener Strategies That Actually Work
Battle-tested screener setups for value, growth, momentum, and dividend strategies, with real backtested results.
Guides
How to Pick Stocks Using Data, Not Gut Feeling
A practical framework for systematic stock selection. Replace intuition with quantitative signals.
Guides
How to Pick Stocks Using Quantitative Analysis
Complete guide to systematic stock selection with a six-factor model. Replace gut instinct with data.
Latest from the desk
S&P 500 closes higher, but infrastructure stocks lead the way on "Grid 2.0" optimism. Barclays' $3210 S&P target fuels the fire. Iran tensions linger, impacting energy. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. ServiceNow's AI transformation and the Buffett Indicator's waning influence are also in focus.
Markets eye grid upgrades as Barclays forecasts $321 S&P. Warsh's Fed bid raises conflict questions. Jobless claims stable, but Iran war looms. $SOFI decline sparks debate. $NOW embraces AI. A day of power plays and potential pitfalls.
Barclays forecasts a $321 S&P 500 based on grid upgrades. Buffett's stable stocks offer recession protection. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. Gold gains on US-Iran peace deal hopes. Paychex's AI transformation is under scrutiny.
Markets mixed amid U.S.-Iran tensions and AI capex concerns. $GOOGL slides on AI spending worries. Cybersecurity fund highlighted as AI security becomes paramount. $SOFI faces questions after YTD decline. United-American merger raises antitrust concerns. $UPST remains volatile.
Geopolitical tensions and AI capex concerns weigh on markets, but cybersecurity and autonomous vehicle plays offer targeted opportunities. $WCBR benefits from agentic AI vulnerabilities. $LCID surges on new CEO and Uber deal. $GOOGL slides on AI spending. $SOFI and $PAYX in focus.
Markets ended the week down amid U.S.-Iran tensions and AI capex concerns, particularly for $GOOGL. $SOFI's YTD decline raises questions about its future. Cybersecurity, as highlighted by $WCBR, is becoming increasingly vital in the AI era. $NOW's AI integration shows promise. Cramer's influence persists.
AI cybersecurity opportunities, SoFi's YTD decline, and JetBlue's strategic shift are key market drivers. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund ($WCBR) may benefit from increased AI threats. SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) faces profitability challenges. JetBlue ($JBLU) cancels Spirit deal, raising fees amid industry pressures. Alphabet ($GOOGL) slides on AI spending concerns.
Master short interest stock analysis with expert strategies for evaluating days-to-cover ratios, short float percentages, and identifying squeeze opportunities versus fundamentally weak companies.
These best growth stocks rank highest for capex efficiency, R&D intensity, and forward revenue acceleration in BCR's quantitative analysis.
Markets are relieved by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but AI capex concerns linger, weighing on tech. Pirro's Powell probe is likely political theater. Cybersecurity ETFs are touted as AI winners. Alphabet struggles with AI spending. SoFi's YTD decline raises questions. ServiceNow's AI integration shows promise.
Markets were choppy today, with AI capex concerns weighing on tech stocks, especially Alphabet. Cybersecurity firms are poised to benefit from the rise of agentic AI. SoFi's struggles highlight the challenges facing fintechs in a rising rate environment. Upstart and ServiceNow are also in focus.
Geopolitical tensions and AI spending concerns weigh on markets. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund ($WCBR) poised to benefit from increased AI security needs. Alphabet ($GOOGL) slides on AI capex worries. ServiceNow ($NOW) sees growth amid AI transformation. NIO ($NIO) falls despite first profit, highlighting EV market fragility.
AI capex concerns weigh on tech stocks, with Alphabet sliding. Cybersecurity firms like WisdomTree's $WCBR are poised to benefit from the agentic AI era. ServiceNow ($NOW) demonstrates successful AI integration into its enterprise platform. Geopolitical tensions and the upcoming Fed meeting add to market uncertainty.
Markets mixed amid AI capex concerns and geopolitical risks. $GOOGL slides as investors question AI returns. Cybersecurity fund $WCBR gains on rising AI threats. Medicare rate hike offers little long-term relief. $UPST and $NIO remain volatile.
AI capex concerns weigh on Alphabet ($GOOGL) as geopolitical tensions rise. Cybersecurity emerges as a potential winner. NIO ($NIO) faces profitability test. Upstart ($UPST) trade ideas surface. MarketAxess ($MKTX) downgraded. Market caught between AI optimism and geopolitical risks.
Markets react to strong jobs report amid Iran tensions. Alphabet slides on AI capex concerns. Cybersecurity fund poised to soar in the agentic AI era. NIO's rally fades. Upstart remains volatile. The Fed's next move is anyone's guess, and that's precisely what's making investors nervous.
Markets await the March jobs report amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. S&P 500 earnings estimates remain optimistic, despite the oil shock. The SpaceX IPO looms, promising both excitement and risk. Delta's partnership with American Express highlights the power of customer loyalty in the airline industry.
Alphabet's slide raises AI capex concerns. Cybersecurity funds gain traction amid agentic AI threats. Upstart remains a meme stock. ServiceNow quietly integrates AI into enterprise solutions. NIO's profit met with skepticism. Market grapples with inflation vs. recession fears.
Dow's 1,100-point surge masks sector shifts. VW's Xpeng deal highlights China tech threat. Nvidia's Marvell partnership solidifies AI dominance. Arcline's Senior exit signals PE caution. Watch small-cap IPOs and dividend stock claims carefully.
Market caught between AI adoption costs and geopolitical tensions. Alphabet slides on AI capex concerns. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund poised to benefit. ServiceNow sees growth. MarketAxess downgraded on valuation. Fed meeting this week. U.S.-Iran tensions escalate.
Wall Street eked out gains amid geopolitical jitters and Nvidia buzz. $GOOGL fell on AI capex concerns. Cybersecurity stocks are gaining traction. $SAN is up after a strong EPS beat and AI pilot launch. NIO's first profit was short-lived. Argus downgraded MarketAxess.
Geopolitical tensions and AI spending are weighing on markets. Alphabet's AI capex raises concerns. WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund touted as an AI beneficiary. Banco Santander gains after EPS beat and AI pilot launch. BHP Group appoints a new CEO. The Fed meeting minutes are on deck.
Geopolitical tensions and AI capex concerns weigh on equities. $GOOGL dips, $NVDA buzz continues despite Strait of Hormuz risks. Cybersecurity sector gains attention. $SAN beats earnings, but European banking sector faces challenges. $MKTX downgraded on valuation concerns. Defensive posture advised.
Markets ended mixed after a volatile session. Arm ($ARM) reversed course after initial chip sales concerns. Micron ($MU) fell on earnings worries. Small caps led gains, potentially signaling a shift away from mega-cap dominance. Equal-weight ETFs continue to outperform, suggesting a change in market leadership.
Markets paused after recent gains. VinFast ($VFS) seen as AV/AI play. Home Depot ($HD) acquires Mingledorff's, entering HVAC. Krispy Kreme ($KKD) restructures, sells Japan business. Starbucks' labor governance changes under scrutiny. Oversold consumer stocks eyed for potential rebound.
SpaceX IPO rumors send Tesla soaring. Home Depot expands into HVAC with Mingledorff's acquisition. Wedbush touts VinFast as an underappreciated AV/AI play. Small caps rally on Trump peace plan hopes. Oversold consumer favorites catch a bid. Market eyes potential US-Iran truce. Is this rally sustainable?
Market opens cautiously optimistic amid job insecurity and shifting sector leadership. Equal-weight ETFs outperform as mega-cap dominance fades. Defense and transportation sectors see strategic realignments. UPS driver buyout withdrawal and oil price drop also in focus.
Trump delayed Iran strikes, boosting risk-on sentiment. Cramer called $NVDA cheap, a potential sell signal. The death of mall king David Simon highlights retail's ongoing struggles. Lighten defensive positions, consider shorting $NVDA and $SPG. This market remains volatile.
Morning briefing covering recession fears, Boralex takeover, mortgage rate inversion, Broadcom's encryption, and the Adobe-NVIDIA AI alliance. Focus on defensive sectors, cybersecurity, and AI innovation for long-term value.
Mixed market today. AI hype continues, but regulatory risks are rising for tech. Disney struggles, Epic Games lays off staff. Fertilizer stocks underperform. Selectivity and caution are key in this volatile market.
Market rallies on AI hype, but fertilizer stocks falter, signaling agricultural weakness. Epic Games layoffs raise metaverse questions. Disney underperforms. A rotation is underway; focus on value and data.
Our quantitative analysis identifies the best growth stocks dominating 2026 momentum rankings. Healthcare and materials sectors lead with exceptional technical performance.
Master defensive stocks to protect wealth during market downturns. Learn proven strategies for recession-proof portfolio construction with data-backed insights.
Meta Platforms stock analysis reveals strong AI revenue growth offset by Reality Labs losses. Deep dive into META's 2026 valuation outlook.
Explore the momentum factor's 7-8% annual premium, from Jegadeesh & Titman's seminal research to Blank Capital's 25% factor weight. Learn why winners keep winning and how to profit from price persistence while managing momentum crash risks.
Conservative companies that deploy capital judiciously consistently outperform growth-obsessed peers by 3-4% annually. Discover the academic foundation, measurement methods, and implementation strategies behind the investment factor.
Short interest often signals more than just bearish sentiment. Our comprehensive analysis examines decades of academic research, historical squeeze episodes, and why we use short interest as a 10% weighted contrarian factor in our quantitative model.
The low volatility anomaly challenges modern finance theory: boring, stable stocks have consistently outperformed volatile ones on a risk-adjusted basis for decades.
A comprehensive 3,000+ word guide to value investing in 2026, covering academic foundations, valuation metrics, avoiding value traps, and current opportunities that combine attractive valuations with quality fundamentals.
Discover the best healthcare stocks for 2026 across pharma, biotech, and medical devices. Our quantitative analysis reveals top picks positioned for demographic trends, GLP-1 revolution, and AI drug discovery.
Our comprehensive analysis identifies the most compelling value opportunities for 2026, combining attractive valuations with strong fundamental quality scores across energy, financials, and technology sectors.
Our quantitative model identifies the best growth stocks for 2026, focusing on quality growth with sustainable competitive advantages. Featuring top picks across technology, healthcare, and industrial sectors with detailed analysis and screening methodology.
Discover the best AI and technology stocks for 2026 through quantitative analysis. Our factor-based approach identifies companies with strong fundamentals beyond the hype, featuring detailed picks across market caps.
Rigorous backtesting reveals how our 6-factor composite model performed across 24 years of market cycles, from the tech crash to COVID recovery. Complete analysis of returns, drawdowns, and real-world limitations.
Analyzing factor performance through the dot-com crash, financial crisis, and COVID crash reveals why multi-factor strategies consistently outperform single-factor approaches and the S&P 500 during market stress.
Our quantitative screener identifies 15 compelling stocks under $50 with strong composite scores. Complete sector analysis, position sizing strategies, and screening methodology included.
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