IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3525
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Recreation
$3.7B
Barry W. McCarthy
Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for various household users. As of June 30, 2021, it had approximately 5.9 million members.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PTON PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. | 40 | 63 | 70 | 14 | 66.0x | 480.3x | -36.2% | -3.4% | 51.2% | 0.6% | -2.8% | -8.5% | 0.0% | - | $3.7B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. (PTON) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 40.1/100. It ranks #3525 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for PTON.
View All RatingsROE proxy -36.2% (sector -1.9%)
GM 51% vs sector 44%, OM 1% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 10.5%
Rev growth -9%, 7yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. (PTON) as a Reduce with a composite score of 40.1/100 at a current price of $4.06. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 40.1/100 places it at rank #3525 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Undervalued
Gross margins of 51% signal strong pricing power.
Value factor score of 70 suggests attractive pricing.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 66.0x leaves little room for execution misses.
Weak momentum suggests persistent institutional selling pressure.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 40.1/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3525 out of 7,333 stocks. PTON's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 63/100, PTON shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -36.2% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 51.2% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of -2.8% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
PTON carries a solid value score of 70/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 66.00x, an EV/EBITDA of 480.34x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC.'s investment score of 33/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -8.5% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of -3.4% (sector: 0.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 14/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at -8.5% year-over-year, while a beta of 2.04 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
PTON's stability score of 31/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 2.04. Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC.'s short interest score of 23/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 2.04). At $3.7B (mid-cap), PTON carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3525 of 7,333 overall (52nd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -36.2% trailing the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 0.6% below the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While PTON currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Momentum (14) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 4091% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 1807% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 16% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Peloton Interactive has collapsed from a $49.3 billion market cap in January 2021 to $1.9 billion today, losing $47.5 billion in value. Once a pandemic-era growth darling with 99%+ annual revenue growth, the company now faces its fifth consecutive year of declining sales and shrinking subscriber base. Despite cost-cutting efforts and new product features, the analyst warns this is a value trap and advises against investing until growth returns.
Peloton's stock has plummeted from its all-time high of $167.42 to $6.63, raising questions about whether it's a value trap or a comeback opportunity. While the company forecasts modest revenue growth and improved EBITDA, it faces concerning declines in paid connected fitness subscriptions for three consecutive quarters and falling app subscriptions. However, recent product launches, app price hikes, and improved free cash flow guidance suggest potential for recovery in 2026.
Analyst sentiment surrounding Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) remains moderately strong as of February 16, 2026, with roughly 50% of analysts covering the stock remaining bullish on it.
Peloton's stock has declined 21.9% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 16.9%, prompting questions about whether it's a value opportunity. However, the company faces significant headwinds including declining subscriptions (down 7% YoY to 2.7 million), falling revenue (down 3% YoY), and increased customer churn. Despite narrowing operating losses and a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.7x, analyst Lawrence Rothman warns the stock may be a value trap and recommends avoiding it due to structural challenges in the fitness equipment industry.
Peloton Interactive stock plummeted 27.24% on February 5, 2026, following disappointing Q2 earnings that missed revenue expectations and weak Q3 guidance of $2.42 billion versus consensus of $2.48 billion. The decline was compounded by the announcement of the CFO's departure. Despite positive gross margin expansion and strong commercial business growth, investors remain concerned about shrinking subscriptions and lack of sales momentum.