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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#395
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Medical Equipment
$9.9B
Adam Elsesser
Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. The company offers aspiration based thrombectomy systems and accessory devices. It also provides neurosurgical aspiration tools for the removal of tissue and fluids under the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device brand.
Headcount
3.9K
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = PEN ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PEN Penumbra Inc | 63 | 70 | 57 | 62 | 83.3x | 80.5x | 11.8% | 9.2% | 66.7% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 28.0x | $9.9B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Penumbra Inc (PEN) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 63.3/100. It ranks #395 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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HQ Base
Alameda, California
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for PEN.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 70 | 81 | -11DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 62 | 63 | -1NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 57 | 48 | +9ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 35 | 61 | -26DRAG |
| STABILITY | 81 | 86 | -5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 79 | 90 | -11DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 11.8% (sector -1.9%)
GM 67% vs sector 44%, OM 13% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 18%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -6.6x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Penumbra Inc (PEN) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.3/100 at a current price of $339.57. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Penumbra Inc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.3/100 places it at rank #395 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 18% and momentum in the 62th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
Low
Standard
Fair Value
Gross margins of 67% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 83.3x leaves little room for execution misses.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Penumbra Inc represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Penumbra Inc a Hold rating, with a composite score of 63.3/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #395 of 7,333 stocks, PEN presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
PEN earns a quality score of 70/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 11.8% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 66.7% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of 12.0% (sector avg: 1.0%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
PEN's value score of 57/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 83.27x, an EV/EBITDA of 80.50x, a P/B ratio of 9.80x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
Penumbra Inc's investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 18.5% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of 9.2% (sector: 0.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
PEN demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 62/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 18.5% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.64 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
PEN shows good financial stability with a score of 81/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.64 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
PEN carries a short interest score of 79/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 28.00x). At $9.9B market cap (mid-cap), Penumbra Inc offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
Penumbra Inc is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #395 of 7,333 overall (95th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 11.8% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 12.5% above the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While PEN currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Stability (81) vs Investment (35) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 602% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 719% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 51% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Abbott edges out Boston Scientific in the MedTech faceoff, with valuation appeal, strong CGM momentum and strategic deals boosting its investment case.
Monteverde & Associates PC, a class action law firm, is investigating four merger transactions: Penumbra's sale to Boston Scientific, RAPT Therapeutics' sale to GSK, Nathan's Famous' sale to Smithfield Foods, and Lisata Therapeutics' sale to Smithfield Foods. The firm is seeking shareholders who may have concerns about these deals.
This week's M&A activity spans major acquisitions and bankruptcies. Boston Scientific agreed to acquire Penumbra for $14.6 billion, expanding its neurovascular presence. Devon Energy and Coterra Energy are in merger discussions to create a major shale producer. Paramount Skydance's lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery was rejected by a Delaware judge. BitMine Immersion invested $200 million in MrBeast's Beast Industries. Meanwhile, spirits producers Stoli Group USA and Kentucky Owl converted their Chapter 11 bankruptcies to Chapter 7 liquidation, and Sailormen Inc., a Popeyes franchisee, filed for bankruptcy.
Boston Scientific agreed to acquire thrombectomy specialist Penumbra for $14.5 billion ($374 per share) in a cash-and-stock deal. Penumbra shareholders will receive approximately 73% cash and 27% equity. The acquisition allows Boston Scientific to enter fast-growing vascular segments. Penumbra reported strong preliminary Q4 2025 results with 21-24% revenue growth. Boston Scientific expects 6-8 cents per share dilution in year one, trending toward neutral to accretive thereafter. The deal is expected to close in 2026.
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