NATL

We rate NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) as a Hold with a composite score of 61.3/100 at a current price of $40.48. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (77th percentile) and stability (70th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

NCR Atleos Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 61.3/100 places it at rank #573 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.9B in market capitalization, NCR Atleos Corp is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 4% and favorable momentum (60th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 24% (-18.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 10% (+9.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 10%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $40.48, NCR Atleos Corp appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 77/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 31.2x (a 40% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 13.3x (near the sector median), P/B of 9.4x, P/S of 0.7x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to NCR Atleos Corp. Key risk factors include significant leverage (843% debt-to-equity), the combination of leverage (843% D/E) and thin margins (2.3% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (843% debt-to-equity); the combination of leverage (843% D/E) and thin margins (2.3% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 70th percentile and quality factor at the 62th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (70th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate NCR Atleos Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (843% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — NCR Atleos Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, NCR Atleos Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 61.3/100 (rank #573 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 63/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on NCR Atleos Corp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.