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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2371
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Food Products
$150M
Daniel R. Chard
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = MED ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MED MEDIFAST INC | 48 | 63 | 48 | 27 | 202.8x | 46.7x | 0.3% | 0.2% | 72.6% | -1.3% | -0.0% | -47.0% | 0.0% | 25.0x | $150M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
MEDIFAST INC (MED) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 47.7/100. It ranks #2371 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for MED.
View All RatingsROE proxy 0.3% (sector -1.9%)
GM 73% vs sector 44%, OM -1% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 1.1%
Rev growth -47%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate MEDIFAST INC (MED) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.7/100 at a current price of $10.47. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
MEDIFAST INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.7/100 places it at rank #2371 in our full universe.
Narrow
Medium
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 73% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 202.8x leaves little room for execution misses.
Weak momentum suggests persistent institutional selling pressure.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
MEDIFAST INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
MEDIFAST INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 47.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2371 out of 7,333 stocks. MED's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 63/100, MED shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 0.3% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 72.6% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of -0.0% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 48/100, MED appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 202.84x, an EV/EBITDA of 46.66x, a P/B ratio of 0.59x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
MEDIFAST INC's investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -47.0% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of 0.2% (sector: 0.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
MEDIFAST INC is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 27/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at -47.0% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.53 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
MED shows good financial stability with a score of 79/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.53 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 25.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
MEDIFAST INC's short interest score of 36/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 25.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $150M (micro-cap), MED carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
MEDIFAST INC is a micro-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2371 of 7,333 overall (68th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 0.3% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of -1.3% below the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While MED currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Momentum (27) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 307% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 115% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 65% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
This article discusses the upcoming events in the financial world, including the Federal Reserve meeting, corporate earnings, IPOs, and investor events.
FPRT beats Q4 earnings as volumes rose 9.7% and EBITDA climbed 16%, with shares up 5.5% on a solid 2026 outlook.
Medifast's (MED) first-quarter results reflect challenges related to a decline in active earning OPTAVIA Coaches, lower coach productivity and soft sales volume.
Medifast’s fourth quarter results outperformed Wall Street’s revenue expectations, which the market responded to positively. Management attributed this to early signs of success from its transition to a metabolic health-focused business model and improvements in coach productivity. CEO Dan Chard highlighted that this was the first quarter since mid-2022 where coach productivity turned positive year-over-year, up 6%. Chard noted, “These early performance metrics are yet to have appreciable impact
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081