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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1026
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Recreation
$5.4B
Ynon Kreiz
Mattel, Inc. designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores.
Headcount
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = MAT ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$MAT MATTEL INC /DE/ | 57 | 76 | 90 | 40 | 8.2x | 7.5x | 29.3% | 10.1% | 50.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 60.8% | 0.0% | 103.0x | $5.4B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 57.0/100. It ranks #1026 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Ynon Kreiz
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
33,900
76
48
56
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for MAT
33.9K
HQ Base
El Segundo,
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for MAT.
View All RatingsEarnings well-supported by fundamental cash flows
Material decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 76 | 84 | -8DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 40 | 21 | +19ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 90 | 92 | -2NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 48 | 88 | -40DRAG |
| STABILITY | 56 | 44 | +12ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 42 | 36 | +6ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 17.4% vs WACC 7.1% (spread +10.3%)
GM 51% vs sector 43%, OM 12% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover 1.05x, R&D intensity 2.7%
Rev growth 61%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 12.9x, Net debt/EBITDA 3.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns MATTEL INC /DE/ a Hold rating, with a composite score of 57.0/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1026 of 7,333 stocks, MAT presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
MAT earns a quality score of 76/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 29.3% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 50.9% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of 9.1% (sector avg: -0.2%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
From a valuation perspective, MAT scores an exceptional 90/100, indicating the stock trades at a deep discount relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 8.15x, an EV/EBITDA of 7.48x, a P/B ratio of 2.39x. A value score this high suggests the market may be significantly underpricing the company's earnings power, assets, or cash flow generation.
With an investment score of 48/100, MAT exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 60.8% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of 10.1% (sector: -0.1%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
MAT is currently showing below-average momentum at 40/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 60.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.16 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 56/100, MAT exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.16 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 103.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
The short interest score of 42/100 for MAT suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 103.00x). With a $5.4B market cap (mid-cap), MATTEL INC /DE/ may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
MATTEL INC /DE/ is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1026 of 7,333 overall (86th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 29.3% exceeding the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of 12.4% above the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While MAT currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Value (90) vs Momentum (40) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 35% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 1283% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 20% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.0/100 at a current price of $17.49. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (90th percentile) and quality (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (40th percentile) and investment (48th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (55/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
MATTEL INC /DE/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.0/100 places it at rank #1026 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $5.4B in market capitalization, MATTEL INC /DE/ is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue is growing at 61%, though momentum at the 40th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 51% (+8.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 12% (+11.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 9.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 18%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $17.49, MATTEL INC /DE/ appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 90/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 8.2x (a 63% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 7.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.4x, P/S of 1.0x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
Gross margins of 51% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Returns on equity of 29.3% exceed the cost of equity for most companies, indicating genuine shareholder value creation and a reinvestment engine that compounds wealth over time.
Revenue growth of 61% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
A value factor score of 90/100 suggests the market is underpricing these fundamentals, creating a potential margin of safety for new investors.
Return on assets of 10.1% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to MATTEL INC /DE/. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (103% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (103% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 56th percentile and quality factor at the 76th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 51% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate MATTEL INC /DE/'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 29.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 103%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; MATTEL INC /DE/ falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, MATTEL INC /DE/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.0/100 (rank #1026 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (55/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 62/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on MATTEL INC /DE/. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign MATTEL INC /DE/ a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 55/100. The ROIC-WACC spread of +10.3% is the primary signal of economic value creation. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that MATTEL INC /DE/ can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being margin superiority at 15.9/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (15.9/20) and financial resilience (14.6/20). GM 51% vs sector 43%, OM 12% vs sector 1%. Interest coverage 12.9x, Net debt/EBITDA 3.8x. These pillars form the core of MATTEL INC /DE/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (2.3/20) and economic value creation (9.7/20). Capital turnover 1.05x, R&D intensity 2.7%. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect MATTEL INC /DE/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 51% providing a solid profitability foundation, operating margins of 12% reflecting effective cost management, robust top-line growth of 61% expanding the revenue base. The margin cascade from 51% gross to 12% operating to 9.1% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that the profit engine is high-quality and likely sustainable, with the quality factor at the 76th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 51%, operating margins of 12%, net margins of 9.1%. Return metrics include ROE of 29.3% and ROA of 10.1%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 8.4 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 29.3% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects above-average leverage with D/E of 103%, revenue growth of 61%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting MATTEL INC /DE/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Elevated leverage (103% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
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Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081