JAKK

We rate JAKKS PACIFIC INC (JAKK) as a Hold with a composite score of 58.1/100 at a current price of $22.91. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (82th percentile) and quality (77th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (38th percentile) and stability (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (67/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

JAKKS PACIFIC INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 58.1/100 places it at rank #878 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $209M in market capitalization, JAKKS PACIFIC INC is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 42%, though momentum at the 42th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 33% (-9.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 7% (+6.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 16%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $22.91, JAKKS PACIFIC INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 82/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 3.8x (a 83% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 2.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 0.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to JAKKS PACIFIC INC. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.58). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.58). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 42th percentile and quality factor at the 77th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 4.00% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate JAKKS PACIFIC INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 26.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 90%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; JAKKS PACIFIC INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.00% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, JAKKS PACIFIC INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 58.1/100 (rank #878 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (67/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 56/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on JAKKS PACIFIC INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.