HOG

We rate HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.9/100 at a current price of $19.47. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (96th percentile) and quality (73th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (25th percentile) and investment (26th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (42/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.9/100 places it at rank #1545 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.4B in market capitalization, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -17% combined with momentum at the 25th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 43% (+0.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 16% (+15.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 14.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 33%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $19.47, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 96/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 3.3x (a 85% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 8.0x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (126% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (126% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 69th percentile and quality factor at the 73th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 43% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (69th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.55% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 20.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 126%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 2.55% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.9/100 (rank #1545 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (42/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 58/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.