GIS

We rate GENERAL MILLS INC (GIS) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.3/100 at a current price of $45.40. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (88th percentile) and value (69th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (30th percentile) and investment (41th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (39/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

GENERAL MILLS INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.3/100 places it at rank #1814 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $25.8B market capitalization, GENERAL MILLS INC operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue contraction of -5% combined with momentum at the 30th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 35% (-7.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 18% (+16.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 35%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $45.40, GENERAL MILLS INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 69/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 9.8x (a 56% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 6.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.5x, P/S of 1.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to GENERAL MILLS INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (249% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.06 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (249% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.06 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 88th percentile and quality factor at the 57th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (88th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 5.01% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate GENERAL MILLS INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 26.1%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 249%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; GENERAL MILLS INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 5.01% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, GENERAL MILLS INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.3/100 (rank #1814 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (39/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on GENERAL MILLS INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.