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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1449
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Food Products
$2.7B
William B. Cyr
Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels. Freshpet was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = FRPT ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | 54 | 53 | 64 | 41 | 31.0x | 28.2x | 10.0% | 6.7% | 40.0% | 3.9% | 10.3% | 22.8% | 0.0% | 48.0x | $2.7B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.6/100. It ranks #1449 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
William B. Cyr
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
1,010
53
33
56
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for FRPT
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for FRPT.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 53 | 40 | +13ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 41 | 22 | +19ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 64 | 52 | +12ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 33 | 49 | -16DRAG |
| STABILITY | 56 | 43 | +13ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 64 | 74 | -10DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 16.5% vs WACC 8.8% (spread +7.7%)
GM 40% vs sector 43%, OM 4% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover 1.92x
Rev growth 23%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 7.0x, Net debt/EBITDA 3.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns Freshpet, Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 53.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1449 of 7,333 stocks, FRPT presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 53/100, FRPT shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 10.0% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 40.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of 10.3% (sector avg: -0.2%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
FRPT's value score of 64/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 31.03x, an EV/EBITDA of 28.23x, a P/B ratio of 3.09x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
Freshpet, Inc.'s investment score of 33/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 22.8% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of 6.7% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
FRPT is currently showing below-average momentum at 41/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 22.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.07 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 56/100, FRPT exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.07 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 48.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
FRPT carries a short interest score of 64/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 48.00x). At $2.7B market cap (mid-cap), Freshpet, Inc. offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
Freshpet, Inc. is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1449 of 7,333 overall (80th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 10.0% exceeding the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of 3.9% above the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While FRPT currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Investment (33) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 146% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 501% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 6% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.6/100 at a current price of $80.42. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (64th percentile) and stability (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (33th percentile) and momentum (41th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (49/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
Freshpet, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.6/100 places it at rank #1449 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.7B in market capitalization, Freshpet, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue is growing at 23%, though momentum at the 41th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 40% (-2.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (+2.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 26%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $80.42, Freshpet, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 64/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 31.0x (a 39% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 28.2x (at a premium), P/B of 3.1x, P/S of 3.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Gross margins of 40% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Revenue growth of 23% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
Even high-quality stocks face risks from valuation compression, competitive disruption, or macro shocks that are difficult to quantify in advance.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Freshpet, Inc.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.07, conservative leverage (48% D/E), and a stability factor in the 56th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 56th percentile with quality at the 53th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 40% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate Freshpet, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Freshpet, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, Freshpet, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.6/100 (rank #1449 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (49/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Freshpet, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign Freshpet, Inc. a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 49/100. The ROIC-WACC spread of +7.7% is the primary signal of economic value creation. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that Freshpet, Inc. can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being growth durability at 14.3/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (14.3/20) and margin superiority (12.7/20). Rev growth 23%, 10yr history. GM 40% vs sector 43%, OM 4% vs sector 1%. These pillars form the core of Freshpet, Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (5.7/20) and financial resilience (8.1/20). Capital turnover 1.92x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect Freshpet, Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 40% providing a solid profitability foundation, robust top-line growth of 23% expanding the revenue base. The margin cascade from 40% gross to 4% operating to 10.3% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 53th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 40%, operating margins of 4%, net margins of 10.3%. Return metrics include ROE of 10.0% and ROA of 6.7%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 2.5 percentage points below the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 10.0% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with D/E of 48%, revenue growth of 23%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting Freshpet, Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. The combination of low leverage and healthy profitability provides significant financial resilience and strategic optionality.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Freshpet, Inc. announced an inducement grant to its Chief Financial Officer, John O'Connor, consisting of 7,500 restricted stock units. This equity award, approved by the Compensation and Human Capital Management Committee, is an inducement material to Mr. O'Connor’s employment acceptance and vests over three years, consistent with NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4). This grant is outside the company's 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.
Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) shareholders have experienced a significant 59% loss over the past five years, despite a recent 26% share price increase in one quarter. The company, which became profitable within the last five years, has seen its revenue grow by 25% annually during the same period, suggesting a disconnect between business fundamentals and stock performance. Insider buying activity has been noted, but analysts suggest a closer look at the company's future earnings forecasts is warranted.
Morgan Stanley has upgraded Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) to Overweight from Equalweight, increasing its price target to $90.00. The firm anticipates Freshpet's topline growth to re-accelerate in 2026, driven by easier comparisons and reduced competitive risk from General Mills. Morgan Stanley also sees an underappreciated opportunity for Freshpet through Walmart's and Amazon's expansion in same-day grocery delivery.
Freshpet reported strong financial results for Q4 2025, with revenue reaching $285.2 million and EPS of $0.64, significantly beating analyst estimates. The company also surpassed $1 billion in net sales for the full 2025 fiscal year for the first time. However, their EBITDA guidance for 2026 is below analyst expectations, and projected revenue growth of 9.1% represents a deceleration from previous years.
Alberta Investment Management Corp acquired a new stake of 759,600 shares in Freshpet, Inc. during Q3, valued at approximately $41.86 million, making it the 24th largest holding in their portfolio. Other institutional investors like Public Sector Pension Investment Board and ING also increased or initiated positions, indicating growing institutional interest. Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) is currently trading around $73 with a market capitalization of $3.56 billion and has a consensus "Hold" rating from analysts with a target price of $73.60.