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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1354
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Consumer Goods
$139M
Kosta N. Kartsotis
Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. | 54 | 51 | 38 | 86 | - | - | -81.0% | -11.1% | 57.3% | -2.5% | -7.8% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 630.0x | $139M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.3/100. It ranks #1354 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for FOSL.
View All RatingsROIC -17.7% vs WACC 6.6% (spread -24.3%)
GM 57% vs sector 44%, OM -2% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover 2.79x
Rev growth -6%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -5.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) as a Hold with a composite score of 54.3/100 at a current price of $4.87. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Fossil Group, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 54.3/100 places it at rank #1354 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at -6% and momentum in the 86th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 57% signal strong pricing power.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 630% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Fossil Group, Inc. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Fossil Group, Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 54.3/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1354 of 7,333 stocks, FOSL presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 51/100, FOSL shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -81.0% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 57.3% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of -7.8% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 38/100, FOSL appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 2.74x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Fossil Group, Inc.'s investment score of 33/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -6.1% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of -11.1% (sector: 0.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
FOSL shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 86/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at -6.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.72 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
FOSL's stability score of 27/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.72 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 630.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
Fossil Group, Inc.'s short interest score of 32/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 1.72), elevated leverage (D/E: 630.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $139M (micro-cap), FOSL carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Fossil Group, Inc. is a micro-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1354 of 7,333 overall (82nd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -81.0% trailing the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of -2.5% below the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While FOSL currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Momentum (86) vs Stability (27) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
ROE 4164% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 30% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Op. Margin 199% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Leadership Changes and Organizational Updates Enhance Ability to Implement Strategic Transformation Kim Roy joins the Company as Executive Director Lisa Pillette joins the Company as Chief Customer Officer Kiera Ganann joined the Company as SVP, Head of Merchandising SECAUCUS, N.J., Feb. 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Children’s Place, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLCE), one of the only pure-play children’s specialty retailers in North America, announced a series of leadership appointments and organizational
Key Insights Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Fossil Group's stock price might be vulnerable to...
Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) ("Fossil" or the "Company") today announced the appointment of Shannon Freeze as Chief People and Communications Officer and a member of the Executive Leadership Team, reporting to CEO Franco Fogliato, effective February 23, 2026.
Key Insights Significantly high institutional ownership implies Fossil Group's stock price is sensitive to their...