COTY

We rate COTY INC. (COTY) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.9/100 at a current price of $2.67. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (84th percentile) and quality (62th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (13th percentile) and investment (33th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

COTY INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.9/100 places it at rank #2817 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.5B in market capitalization, COTY INC. is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 0%, though momentum at the 13th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 65% (+22.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (+2.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -7.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -12%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $2.67, COTY INC. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 84/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.9x (a 46% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 4.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.6x, P/S of 0.4x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to COTY INC.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (192% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -7.8%), the combination of leverage (192% D/E) and thin margins (-7.8% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (192% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -7.8%); the combination of leverage (192% D/E) and thin margins (-7.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 50th percentile and quality factor at the 62th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 65% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate COTY INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-11.2%), elevated leverage (192% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -3.7%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — COTY INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, COTY INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.9/100 (rank #2817 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on COTY INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.