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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#708
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Steel Works
$2.7B
Jesse E. Gary
Century Aluminum Company produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = CENX ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM CO | 60 | 55 | 56 | 89 | 239.7x | 37.4x | 2.9% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 206.0x | $2.7B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
CENTURY ALUMINUM CO (CENX) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 59.8/100. It ranks #708 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for CENX.
View All RatingsROIC 12.5% vs WACC 9.0% (spread +3.5%)
GM 8% vs sector 44%, OM 5% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover 1.35x
Rev growth 29%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 3.0x, Net debt/EBITDA 8.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate CENTURY ALUMINUM CO (CENX) as a Hold with a composite score of 59.8/100 at a current price of $53.53. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
CENTURY ALUMINUM CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 59.8/100 places it at rank #708 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 29% and momentum in the 89th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 239.7x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 206% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
CENTURY ALUMINUM CO represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns CENTURY ALUMINUM CO a Hold rating, with a composite score of 59.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #708 of 7,333 stocks, CENX presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 55/100, CENX shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 2.9% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 7.8% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of 0.8% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
CENX's value score of 56/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 239.68x, an EV/EBITDA of 37.37x, a P/B ratio of 7.05x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
CENTURY ALUMINUM CO's investment score of 22/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 29.1% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of 1.0% (sector: 0.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
CENX shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 89/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 29.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.78 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
CENX's stability score of 42/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.78 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 206.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 49/100 for CENX suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 1.78), elevated leverage (D/E: 206.00x). With a $2.7B market cap (mid-cap), CENTURY ALUMINUM CO may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
CENTURY ALUMINUM CO is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #708 of 7,333 overall (90th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 2.9% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 5.2% above the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While CENX currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Momentum (89) vs Investment (22) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 226% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 255% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 82% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) Chief Financial Officer Peter outlined the company’s operating footprint, near-term earnings sensitivity to aluminum and power prices, and progress on several strategic initiatives, including the restart of idled U.S. capacity, a planned new smelter in Oklahoma, and th
CHICAGO, Feb. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) today issued the following statement regarding the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Century Aluminum proudly stands with President Donald J. Trump and his America First trade policies, which have been instrumental in ensuring a level playing field for American industry and workers and restoring the U.S. industrial base. Those trade
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock falls after Q4 2025 earnings miss estimates, with EPS of $0.02 vs. $1.32 expected.
Trump's new tariff plan has caused markets to trade lower, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2%. While domestic steel and aluminum producers may benefit, the overall impact remains uncertain as further negotiations are expected.