ARLO

We rate Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.3/100 at a current price of $11.61. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (65th percentile) and value (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (38th percentile) and investment (48th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (39/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Arlo Technologies, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.3/100 places it at rank #2290 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.8B in market capitalization, Arlo Technologies, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 9%, though momentum at the 38th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 41% (-1.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -1% (-2.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 2%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $11.61, Arlo Technologies, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 56/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 260.6x (a 1071% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 352.8x (at a premium), P/B of 9.5x, P/S of 2.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Arlo Technologies, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.47), significant leverage (172% debt-to-equity), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 260.6x) that leaves limited margin for error. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.47); significant leverage (172% debt-to-equity); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 260.6x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (172% D/E) and thin margins (0.9% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 56th percentile and quality factor at the 65th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 41% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Arlo Technologies, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (3.6%), elevated leverage (172% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Arlo Technologies, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Arlo Technologies, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.3/100 (rank #2290 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (39/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 53/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Arlo Technologies, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.