AOS

We rate SMITH A O CORP (AOS) as a Hold with a composite score of 62.0/100 at a current price of $77.07. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (91th percentile) and quality (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (40th percentile) and momentum (54th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (67/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SMITH A O CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 62.0/100 places it at rank #499 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $10.3B market capitalization, SMITH A O CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue contraction of -8% combined with momentum at the 54th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 39% (-3.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 19% (+18.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 14.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 37%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $77.07, SMITH A O CORP appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 73/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 19.9x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 14.5x (at a premium), P/B of 5.8x, P/S of 2.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to SMITH A O CORP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.58, and a stability factor in the 91th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.58 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 91th percentile and quality factor at the 76th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (91th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SMITH A O CORP's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 29.3%, a 1.85% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — SMITH A O CORP meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 1.85% dividend yield, and the combination of 17.1% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, SMITH A O CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 62.0/100 (rank #499 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (67/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 67/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SMITH A O CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.