A Look At Ouster (OUST) Valuation After Strong 2026 Guidance And StereoLabs Acquisition

Ouster (OUST) has drawn fresh attention after management issued first quarter 2026 revenue guidance of US$45 million to US$48 million, above analyst expectations and incorporating the recent StereoLabs acquisition.

This update, combined with twelve consecutive quarters of product revenue increases and higher software attached bookings in 2025, has put extra focus on the upcoming earnings report as investors look for confirmation of that momentum.

See our latest analysis for Ouster.

Ouster’s latest guidance comes after a mixed share price stretch, with a 2.8% 7 day share price return. However, this comes alongside a 10.5% 30 day and 28.1% 90 day share price decline, while the 1 year total shareholder return of about 2x and 3 year total shareholder return of more than 3x suggest longer term momentum has been strong.

If you are watching how this lidar and Physical AI story develops, it can be useful to see what else is moving and compare against 36 AI infrastructure stocks

With Ouster trading at US$20.03, sitting at a very large discount to the average analyst price target and an intrinsic value estimate that suggests about a 60% gap, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Ouster’s most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of about $39.50, almost double the last close of $20.03, which naturally raises questions about the assumptions behind that gap.

Ouster's focus on software-attached bookings, which increased by over 60% in 2024, indicates future growth in high-margin software solutions, likely resulting in improved net margins compared to hardware-only sales.

Revenue growth, improving margins and a premium future earnings multiple all sit at the core of this valuation story. See how those pieces fit together and what kind of future profitability and cash generation this narrative is baking in.

Result: Fair Value of $39.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story can change quickly if lidar adoption in industrial and smart infrastructure slows, or if competition from Chinese peers and legal or tariff issues pressure margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Ouster narrative.

Given the mix of optimism and concern in this story, act while the facts are fresh. Weigh both sides for yourself with the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

If Ouster has your attention, do not stop here. Your next strong idea could be sitting in plain sight among other stocks with very different profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Engages in the production and sale of lidar sensor kits for the automotive, industrial, robotics, and smart infrastructure industries in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

High growth potential with excellent balance sheet.