About CHICAGO RIVET & MACHINE CO
Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. operates in the fastener industry in North America. It operates in two segments, Fasteners and Assembly Equipment. The Fastener segment manufactures and sells rivets, cold-formed fasteners and parts, and screw machine products.
The Assembly Equipment segment manufactures automatic rivet setting machines and assembly equipment, as well as parts and tools for related machines. The company sells its products to automobile and automotive component manufacturers through independent sales representatives. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Naperville, Illinois.
CVR operates in the Manufacturing | Machinery | headquartered in NAPERV, Illinois | approximately 200 employees | led by CEO Walter W. Morrissey.
The $952.6M question: What happens when a company this good becomes this expensive?
In the constellation of American capitalism, certain companies shine brighter than others — not because they are inherently more valuable, but because they have positioned themselves at the nexus of forces that shape the economy. CVR PARTNERS, LP is one such company.
At $952.6M in market capitalization, CVR PARTNERS, LP (UAN) currently ranks #108 in our quantitative model, with a composite score of 78.1/100. That places it firmly in "Strong Buy" territory — our highest conviction rating.
But here's the thing about stocks priced for perfection: They leave no room for error.
The Numbers That Matter
Let's start with what's undeniably true. Our 6-factor model gives UAN the following scores:
| Factor | Score | Weight | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 96/100 | 30% | Exceptional |
| Value | 72/100 | 15% | Fair |
| Momentum | 65/100 | 25% | Steady |
| Investment | 32/100 | 10% | Low |
| Stability | 72/100 | 10% | Solid |
| Short Interest | 57/100 | 10% | Normal |
The quality score of 96/100 is the headline here. It reflects profitability metrics that would make most CFOs weep with envy:
- ROE: 60.3%
- Net Margin: 26.3%
- Gross Margin: 37.0%
These aren't just good numbers. They're the kind of numbers that make UAN a "must-own" stock for institutional portfolios.
The Bull Case
"If you could design a business in a laboratory, it would look something like UAN."
The bull case writes itself:
- Quality is persistent. Academic research shows high-quality stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods. UAN is quality defined.
- Momentum is real. With a momentum score of 65/100, the stock has been recognized by the market — and momentum tends to persist.
- The moat is deep. Companies with these margins don't lose them easily. The competitive position is entrenched.
The Bear Case
But here's what keeps value investors up at night:
- Valuation compression risk. At current levels, the stock is priced for continued perfection. Any stumble — a missed quarter, a competitive threat, a macro slowdown — could compress the multiple from 7.5x to the low 20s. That's a 20-30% decline without anything fundamentally "wrong."
- The crowded trade problem. When everyone owns a stock, who's left to buy? Momentum works until it doesn't.
- Mean reversion. Trees don't grow to the sky. At some point, growth decelerates.
The Valuation Framework
| Scenario | Assumption | Fair Value | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Multiple compression to 20x | -20% | Downside |
| Base | Current trajectory continues | +10-15% | Modest upside |
| Bull | Momentum accelerates | +30-40% | Significant upside |
The risk-reward is ... fine. Not exceptional. Not terrible. Just fine.
The Bottom Line
CVR PARTNERS, LP is exactly what it appears to be: a high-quality business with strong momentum trading at a premium price. Whether that's attractive depends entirely on what kind of investor you are.
For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, UAN is a core holding. For value investors or short-term traders, look elsewhere.
The company is priced for perfection — and in markets, as in life, perfection is a fragile thing.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rating: 5-Star Strong Buy
Score: 78.1/100 | Rank: #108 of 3,571 stocks
Sector: Materials
This analysis reflects the views of Blank Capital Research as of February 16, 2026. It is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.