About NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP
National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and a behavioral health hospital. Its skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapy for patients recovering from strokes, heart attacks, orthopedic conditions, neurological illnesses, or other illnesses, injuries, or disabilities. The company's medical specialty units comprise memory care units and sub-cute nursing units that provide specialized care and programs for persons with Alzheimer's or related disorders; and assisted living centers offer personal care services and assistance with general activities of daily living, such as dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and medication management. It also offers behavioral health services to both adults and geriatric patients with psychiatric, emotional, and addictive disorders.
In addition, it provides health care programs that offer skilled services, such as infusion, wound care and physical, occupational, and speech therapies; hospice care services; operates pharmacies; offers management, accounting, financial, and insurance services; and leases its properties to third party operators. As of February 18, 2022, the company operated 75 skilled nursing facilities with 9,473 beds, 24 assisted living facilities, five independent living facilities, one behavioral health hospital, 34 homecare agencies, and 28 hospice agencies. National HealthCare Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
NHC operates in the Services | Healthcare | headquartered in MURFREESBORO, Tennessee | approximately 12,400 employees | led by CEO Stephen F. Flatt.
The $1.9B question: What happens when a company this good becomes this expensive?
In the alphabet soup of healthcare investing, few stories capture the tension between innovation and regulation quite like NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP. The company stands at the intersection of scientific possibility and market reality.
At $1.9B in market capitalization, NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP (NHC) currently ranks #123 in our quantitative model, with a composite score of 77.8/100. That places it firmly in "Strong Buy" territory — our highest conviction rating.
But here's the thing about stocks priced for perfection: They leave no room for error.
The Numbers That Matter
Let's start with what's undeniably true. Our 6-factor model gives NHC the following scores:
| Factor | Score | Weight | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 60/100 | 30% | Strong |
| Value | 75/100 | 15% | Fair |
| Momentum | 88/100 | 25% | Accelerating |
| Investment | 42/100 | 10% | Moderate |
| Stability | 86/100 | 10% | Fortress |
| Short Interest | 44/100 | 10% | Normal |
The quality score of 60/100 is the headline here. It reflects profitability metrics that would make most CFOs weep with envy:
- ROE: 10.6%
- Net Margin: 10.7%
- Gross Margin: 39.1%
These aren't just good numbers. They're the kind of numbers that make NHC a "must-own" stock for institutional portfolios.
The Bull Case
"If you could design a business in a laboratory, it would look something like NHC."
The bull case writes itself:
- Quality is persistent. Academic research shows high-quality stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods. NHC is quality defined.
- Momentum is real. With a momentum score of 88/100, the stock has been recognized by the market — and momentum tends to persist.
- The moat is deep. Companies with these margins don't lose them easily. The competitive position is entrenched.
The Bear Case
But here's what keeps value investors up at night:
- Valuation compression risk. At current levels, the stock is priced for continued perfection. Any stumble — a missed quarter, a competitive threat, a macro slowdown — could compress the multiple from 18.6x to the low 20s. That's a 20-30% decline without anything fundamentally "wrong."
- The crowded trade problem. When everyone owns a stock, who's left to buy? Momentum works until it doesn't.
- Mean reversion. Trees don't grow to the sky. At some point, growth decelerates.
The Valuation Framework
| Scenario | Assumption | Fair Value | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Multiple compression to 20x | -20% | Downside |
| Base | Current trajectory continues | +10-15% | Modest upside |
| Bull | Momentum accelerates | +30-40% | Significant upside |
The risk-reward is ... fine. Not exceptional. Not terrible. Just fine.
The Bottom Line
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP is exactly what it appears to be: a high-quality business with strong momentum trading at a premium price. Whether that's attractive depends entirely on what kind of investor you are.
For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, NHC is a core holding. For value investors or short-term traders, look elsewhere.
The company is priced for perfection — and in markets, as in life, perfection is a fragile thing.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rating: 5-Star Strong Buy
Score: 77.8/100 | Rank: #123 of 3,571 stocks
Sector: Healthcare
This analysis reflects the views of Blank Capital Research as of February 16, 2026. It is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.