About Global Ship Lease

Global Ship Lease, Inc. owns and charters containerships of various sizes under fixed-rate charters to container shipping companies.

As of March 10, 2022, it owned 65 mid-sized and smaller containerships with an aggregate capacity of 342,348 twenty-foot equivalent units. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

GSL operates in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services | Transportation | approximately 7 employees | led by CEO Ian J. Webber.

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## Investment Thesis Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL) currently ranks **#3** in our coverage universe of 3,571 U.S.-listed equities, with a composite score of **80.7/100**. This places the stock in our **"Strong Buy"** category based on our proprietary six-factor quantitative model. The bull case rests on three pillars: exceptional profitability (Quality score: 93/100), favorable market dynamics (Momentum: 91/100), and reasonable valuation relative to quality (Value: 82/100). Our model, built on 46 peer-reviewed academic studies, identifies these factor combinations as historically predictive of outperformance. The central question for investors: **Is GSL's quality premium justified by its growth trajectory, or has the market already priced in perfection?** --- ## Company Overview Global Ship Lease, Inc. operates in the **Industrials** sector and has demonstrated modest revenue growth of 5.8% over the trailing twelve months. The company converts 50.1% of revenue into net income, a best-in-class margin profile. At $753M, GSL is a mid-cap company with potential for significant growth but also higher volatility. --- ## Our Six-Factor Analysis Our proprietary model evaluates every stock across six factors, each backed by peer-reviewed academic research. Here's how GSL scores: ### Quality Score: 93/100 ★★★★★ **What we measure:** Return on equity, return on assets, gross margin, net margin, earnings consistency, and accruals quality. GSL generates a return on equity of **26.7%**, exceptional by any standard and indicative of a highly efficient capital structure. Gross margin of **1.0%** reflects competitive industry dynamics. Net margin of **50.1%** is world-class and suggests significant competitive advantages. **Academic evidence:** Research by Novy-Marx (2013) demonstrates that quality stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods, even after controlling for market beta. --- ### Value Score: 82/100 ★★★★★ **What we measure:** P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, and free cash flow yield relative to sector and historical norms. GSL trades at **2.19x earnings**, a significant discount to the market, suggesting either value opportunity or fundamental concerns. Price-to-book of **0.51x** suggests the stock trades close to tangible asset value. **Academic evidence:** Fama and French (1992) established that value stocks (low P/B, P/E) outperform growth stocks by 3-5% annually, though this premium has compressed in recent years. --- ### Momentum Score: 91/100 ★★★★★ **What we measure:** 12-month price momentum, revenue growth acceleration, earnings surprise frequency, and relative strength. Revenue growth of **5.8%** reflects mature market conditions. Our timing model assigns a score of **58.339080944350755/100** with a **Favorable** signal, suggesting neutral timing. **Academic evidence:** Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) documented that stocks with strong 6-12 month momentum continue to outperform over the subsequent 3-12 months, generating 1%+ monthly alpha. --- ### Investment Score: 60/100 ★★★★ **What we measure:** Asset growth, capital expenditure intensity, acquisition activity, and capital allocation discipline. An investment score of 60/100 suggests GSL is deploying capital effectively to drive future growth. **Academic evidence:** Titman, Wei, and Xie (2004) found that companies with high asset growth subsequently underperform, suggesting capital discipline matters. --- ### Stability Score: 38/100 ★★ **What we measure:** Beta, earnings volatility, balance sheet strength, debt levels, and cash flow consistency. Beta of **0.88** indicates market-level volatility. Debt-to-equity of **0.5%** reflects a conservative capital structure with ample financial flexibility. **Academic evidence:** Low-volatility stocks have historically outperformed high-volatility stocks on a risk-adjusted basis—a phenomenon known as the "low-volatility anomaly" (Baker, Bradley, Wurgler 2011). --- ### Short Interest Score: 21/100 ★★ **What we measure:** Days to cover, short interest as percentage of float, and short interest trend. A short interest score of 21/100 suggests significant bearish positioning, which could indicate either smart money concerns or potential short squeeze opportunity. --- ## Economic Moat Assessment Based on our analysis of profitability metrics, competitive positioning, and sustainability of returns, we assess GSL's economic moat as follows:

Moat Type	None
Moat Width	Narrow
Uncertainty	High

- Exceptional profitability metrics suggest pricing power --- ## Fair Value Estimate We employ a reverse discounted cash flow methodology to estimate fair value, working backward from the current price to determine what growth assumptions are implied. ### Three-Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Implied Fair Value	Upside/Downside	Assumptions
Bear	$5.2B	+585.3%	Assumes 8% 5-year growth, 18x terminal P/E, 12% discount rate
Base	$9.4B	+1149.2%	Assumes 12% 5-year growth, 25x terminal P/E, 10% discount rate
Bull	$16.4B	+2072.6%	Assumes 18% 5-year growth, 32x terminal P/E, 9% discount rate

### Probability-Weighted Expected Return Assuming 20% bear, 50% base, and 30% bull probability weights: **Expected Return: 1313.4%** --- ## Peer Comparison How does GSL stack up against sector peers?

Company	BCR Score	P/E	ROE	Net Margin
GSL (This Stock)	80.7	2.19	26.7%	50.1%
SSD	79.7	20.21	20.3%	17.2%
VMI	79.6	29.23	25.7%	9.7%
WTS	79.6	28.61	17.4%	13.4%
MWA	79.6	20.75	22.3%	13.8%
DAC	79.4	3.05	15.7%	49.8%

GSL scores higher than all shown peers, suggesting superior factor profile. --- ## Risk Factors Every investment carries risk. Here are the key risks for GSL: ### Valuation Risk ✅ LOW The current valuation provides reasonable downside protection. ### Competitive Risk ⚡ MODERATE Competitive dynamics in this sector require ongoing investment and strategic adaptation. ### Execution Risk ⚠️ HIGH Below-average stability scores suggest earnings volatility and potential execution challenges. ### Macro Risk ⚡ MODERATE All equities are subject to macroeconomic conditions including interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. A recession could impact earnings regardless of company-specific quality. --- ## Financial Deep Dive ### Income Statement Analysis **Gross Margin: 1.0%** — Compressed margins suggest competitive industry dynamics. **Operating Margin: 53.7%** — Best-in-class operational efficiency. **Net Margin: 50.1%** — World-class profitability. ### Balance Sheet Analysis **Debt-to-Equity: 0.5%** — Conservative leverage with ample financial flexibility. **Return on Equity: 26.7%** — Strong capital allocation and efficient operations. ### Cash Flow Indicators **Revenue Growth: 5.8%** — Steady growth reflecting mature market position. --- ## Investment Decision Framework ### Who Should Buy GSL? ✅ **Long-term investors** seeking quality exposure ✅ **Factor investors** targeting quality and momentum ✅ **Portfolio builders** needing Industrials sector exposure ✅ **Income investors** seeking dividend yield ### Who Should Avoid GSL? ❌ **Deep value investors** seeking bargain prices ❌ **Short-term traders** seeking high volatility ### Position Sizing Recommendation Based on our factor profile and risk assessment: | Portfolio Size | Suggested GSL Weight | |----------------|---------------------------| | $10,000 | $800 - $1,200 | | $100,000 | $8,000 - $12,000 | | $1,000,000 | $80,000 - $120,000 | --- ## The Bottom Line Global Ship Lease, Inc. represents **a compelling investment opportunity** based on our six-factor quantitative analysis. The company's quality metrics are exceptional, while its valuation offers attractive entry point. Our fair value analysis suggests **upside potential of 1149%** under base-case assumptions, with probability-weighted expected returns of **1313%**. We recommend accumulation, particularly on any pullbacks that improve the risk-reward profile. ---

--- ## Methodology Disclosure This analysis is based on the Blank Capital Research six-factor quantitative model, which evaluates securities across Quality, Value, Momentum, Investment, Stability, and Short Interest factors. Factor weights are derived from 46 peer-reviewed academic studies and calibrated to current market conditions. Our fair value estimates employ reverse discounted cash flow analysis, working backward from market price to implied growth assumptions. This methodology is inherently uncertain and should be considered as one input among many in investment decisions. --- *This report was generated on Monday, February 16, 2026. The analysis reflects data as of that date. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not investment advice. Blank Capital Research may hold positions in securities mentioned.*