About AES CORP
AES Indiana operates as a regulated electric utility. The company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy to approximately 516,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the city of Indianapolis, as well as neighboring cities, towns, communities, and adjacent rural areas within the state of Indiana. It owns and operates four generating stations, including a coal-fired station in Petersburg; the natural gas and fuel oil station in Harding Street; a combined cycle gas turbine natural gas plant in Eagle Valley; and the small peaking station that uses natural gas in Georgetown.
The company was formerly known as Indianapolis Power & Light Company and changed its name to AES Indiana in February 2021. The company was incorporated in 1926 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana. AES Indiana is a subsidiary of IPALCO Enterprises, Inc.
AES operates in the Construction | Construction Materials | headquartered in Arlington, Virginia | approximately 8,450 employees | led by CEO Andrés Ricardo Gluski Weilert.
The $9.3B question: What happens when a company this good becomes this expensive?
In the constellation of American capitalism, certain companies shine brighter than others — not because they are inherently more valuable, but because they have positioned themselves at the nexus of forces that shape the economy. AES CORP is one such company.
At $9.3B in market capitalization, AES CORP (AES) currently ranks #195 in our quantitative model, with a composite score of 76.6/100. That places it firmly in "Strong Buy" territory — our highest conviction rating.
But here's the thing about stocks priced for perfection: They leave no room for error.
The Numbers That Matter
Let's start with what's undeniably true. Our 6-factor model gives AES the following scores:
| Factor | Score | Weight | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 67/100 | 30% | Strong |
| Value | 89/100 | 15% | Attractive |
| Momentum | 72/100 | 25% | Accelerating |
| Investment | 98/100 | 10% | Growing |
| Stability | 8/100 | 10% | Volatile |
| Short Interest | 43/100 | 10% | Normal |
The quality score of 67/100 is the headline here. It reflects profitability metrics that would make most CFOs weep with envy:
- ROE: 36.1%
- Net Margin: 15.4%
- Gross Margin: 21.9%
These aren't just good numbers. They're the kind of numbers that make AES a "must-own" stock for institutional portfolios.
The Bull Case
"If you could design a business in a laboratory, it would look something like AES."
The bull case writes itself:
- Quality is persistent. Academic research shows high-quality stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods. AES is quality defined.
- Momentum is real. With a momentum score of 72/100, the stock has been recognized by the market — and momentum tends to persist.
- The moat is deep. Companies with these margins don't lose them easily. The competitive position is entrenched.
The Bear Case
But here's what keeps value investors up at night:
- Valuation compression risk. At current levels, the stock is priced for continued perfection. Any stumble — a missed quarter, a competitive threat, a macro slowdown — could compress the multiple from 8.9x to the low 20s. That's a 20-30% decline without anything fundamentally "wrong."
- The crowded trade problem. When everyone owns a stock, who's left to buy? Momentum works until it doesn't.
- Mean reversion. Trees don't grow to the sky. At some point, growth decelerates.
The Valuation Framework
| Scenario | Assumption | Fair Value | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Multiple compression to 20x | -20% | Downside |
| Base | Current trajectory continues | +10-15% | Modest upside |
| Bull | Momentum accelerates | +30-40% | Significant upside |
The risk-reward is ... fine. Not exceptional. Not terrible. Just fine.
The Bottom Line
AES CORP is exactly what it appears to be: a high-quality business with strong momentum trading at a premium price. Whether that's attractive depends entirely on what kind of investor you are.
For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, AES is a core holding. For value investors or short-term traders, look elsewhere.
The company is priced for perfection — and in markets, as in life, perfection is a fragile thing.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rating: 5-Star Strong Buy
Score: 76.6/100 | Rank: #195 of 3,571 stocks
Sector: Industrials
This analysis reflects the views of Blank Capital Research as of February 16, 2026. It is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.