About Autodesk
Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry.
It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
ADSK operates in the Services | Computer Software | headquartered in San Rafael, California | approximately 12,600 employees | led by CEO Andrew Anagnost.
The $64.2B question: What happens when a company this good becomes this expensive?
In the rarefied air of Silicon Valley valuations, Autodesk, Inc. sits at a peculiar crossroads. The company that once defined an era now finds itself redefining another — and investors are paying a premium for the privilege of coming along.
At $64.2B in market capitalization, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) currently ranks #179 in our quantitative model, with a composite score of 76.8/100. That places it firmly in "Strong Buy" territory — our highest conviction rating.
But here's the thing about stocks priced for perfection: They leave no room for error.
The Numbers That Matter
Let's start with what's undeniably true. Our 6-factor model gives ADSK the following scores:
| Factor | Score | Weight | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 94/100 | 30% | Exceptional |
| Value | 61/100 | 15% | Fair |
| Momentum | 65/100 | 25% | Steady |
| Investment | 42/100 | 10% | Moderate |
| Stability | 81/100 | 10% | Fortress |
| Short Interest | 44/100 | 10% | Normal |
The quality score of 94/100 is the headline here. It reflects profitability metrics that would make most CFOs weep with envy:
- ROE: 46.4%
- Net Margin: 18.5%
- Gross Margin: 91.1%
These aren't just good numbers. They're the kind of numbers that make ADSK a "must-own" stock for institutional portfolios.
The Bull Case
"If you could design a business in a laboratory, it would look something like ADSK."
The bull case writes itself:
- Quality is persistent. Academic research shows high-quality stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods. ADSK is quality defined.
- Momentum is real. With a momentum score of 65/100, the stock has been recognized by the market — and momentum tends to persist.
- The moat is deep. Companies with these margins don't lose them easily. The competitive position is entrenched.
The Bear Case
But here's what keeps value investors up at night:
- Valuation compression risk. At current levels, the stock is priced for continued perfection. Any stumble — a missed quarter, a competitive threat, a macro slowdown — could compress the multiple from 57.8x to the low 20s. That's a 20-30% decline without anything fundamentally "wrong."
- The crowded trade problem. When everyone owns a stock, who's left to buy? Momentum works until it doesn't.
- Mean reversion. Trees don't grow to the sky. At some point, growth decelerates.
The Valuation Framework
| Scenario | Assumption | Fair Value | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Multiple compression to 20x | -20% | Downside |
| Base | Current trajectory continues | +10-15% | Modest upside |
| Bull | Momentum accelerates | +30-40% | Significant upside |
The risk-reward is ... fine. Not exceptional. Not terrible. Just fine.
The Bottom Line
Autodesk, Inc. is exactly what it appears to be: a high-quality business with strong momentum trading at a premium price. Whether that's attractive depends entirely on what kind of investor you are.
For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, ADSK is a core holding. For value investors or short-term traders, look elsewhere.
The company is priced for perfection — and in markets, as in life, perfection is a fragile thing.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rating: 5-Star Strong Buy
Score: 76.8/100 | Rank: #179 of 3,571 stocks
Sector: Technology
This analysis reflects the views of Blank Capital Research as of February 16, 2026. It is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.